Air freight adapts to geopolitical disruptions with focus on high-tech and sustainability

The air freight sector is entering 2026 under intense geopolitical pressure even as technology and online retail continue to underpin pockets of robust demand, industry figures told delegates at the IATA World Cargo Symposium in Lima.

Presenting data for consultant Aevean, Marco Bloemen warned that the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East has materially disrupted key east–west corridors, producing steep capacity contractions on routes that feed Gulf hubs. Aevean’s analysis showed a 39% reduction in available cargo tonne kilometres on the Asia–Middle East–Gulf axis in the four days to 3 March versus the period immediately before the Chinese New Year, with global cargo capacity down about 22%. Capacity from Gulf carriers was the most severely affected, plunging roughly 79% relative to the pre-holiday baseline, while the Levant & Caucasus, South Asia, Africa and Europe experienced falls in the order of 30%, 33%, 19% and 16% respectively.

Airlines have started to reroute services to limit exposure, with Aevean finding a notable uptick in direct sailings from China/Hong Kong to Europe, up 26%, and an additional 14% increase in China/Hong Kong to Europe services that avoid Gulf transits. IndexBox analysis of early 2026 capacity trends corroborates a wider strategic repositioning, reporting a 4% year-on-year rise in global cargo capacity and marked growth on Asia–Europe links (+15%) and Asia–Middle East routes (+12%), while capacity on the Asia–North America corridor eased slightly.

Those network adjustments are unfolding against a backdrop of rising jet fuel costs and constrained aircraft availability. Bloemen highlighted that a substantial portion of the widebody bellyhold and freighter lift slated to enter service this year was earmarked for carriers in the Middle East and South Asia, airlines now facing operational restrictions, which complicates the supply outlook. Fuel prices, he said, were “quickly rising” as a direct effect of the conflict, increasing pressure on operating margins and on carriers’ decarbonisation programmes that rely on predictable fuel economics.

Despite the disruption, demand metrics for the start of 2026 show resilience in many regions. IATA reported that global cargo demand in January climbed 5.6% year-on-year, with international traffic growing 7.2% and overall capacity up 3.6%. The Middle East and Africa posted the strongest demand gains, according to IATA, while North America saw a marginal decline and the Asia–North America lane registered a small fall in volumes.

The composition of growth is also shifting. Aevean’s sectoral breakdown for 2025 underlines the dominance of technology-related flows, with high-tech cargo registering a 25% rise year-on-year and data-centre exports a key driver, data-centre goods alone accounted for some 1.4m tonnes in 2025, up 39% on the year before. Aevean noted that most data-centre items are not subject to recent US tariffs, helping sustain shipments to North America after new levies were introduced; in fact, high-tech was the only segment to record growth into the US between April and December 2025. Low-value e-commerce also expanded, rising 16% in 2025 versus 2024, though that pace moderated after the previous year’s surge as US changes to de minimis treatment dampened transatlantic parcel flows.

Not all sectors fared well: vehicle and transport components fell around 5% and apparel and footwear declined roughly 3%. Regional trade patterns shifted too, Europe overtook North America to become the second-largest destination for Chinese e-commerce air exports, taking a 26% share in 2025, while North America’s share contracted as a consequence of tariff and de minimis policy adjustments.

For air cargo stakeholders focused on industrial decarbonisation, these developments create both challenges and strategic entry-points. Capacity rerouting and elevated fuel prices can strain short-term decarbonisation investments by increasing operating costs; at the same time, the rise in long-haul, high-value technology traffic concentrates volumes on lanes where efficiency gains from larger, more modern fleets and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) uptake can deliver meaningful emissions reductions. Industry messaging at the symposium, framed by IATA’s theme of “Advancing Air Cargo in a Dynamic World”, emphasised the need for agility in network planning, accelerated fuel-transition strategies and targeted infrastructure to support temperature-controlled, high-tech supply chains.

“These are interesting times,” said Bloemen. The remark encapsulated a broader view voiced at the WCS, that geopolitical shocks and trade-policy shifts will continue to reshape route structures and cargo mixes, while technological goods and e-commerce will remain growth levers. Operators, shippers and policymakers must therefore balance immediate operational responses with longer-term investments that enhance resilience and advance decarbonisation goals amid an evolving global trade landscape.