The Asia-Pacific region is becoming the global hub for hydrogen growth, driven by China’s build-out and investment surges, but industry analysts warn of significant fragilities and policy uncertainties that could hamper its full potential.
As nations press to decarbonise industry and power systems, the Asia‑Pacific region has become the driving force behind a rapidly expanding hydrogen sector, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest Global Hydrogen Review. The IEA’s analysis paints a picture of robust, if uneven, growth: demand for low‑carbon hydrogen climbed to almost 100 million tonnes in 2024, the Asia‑Pacific market was worth $6.05 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $109.19 billion by 2034, and China now accounts for roughly two‑thirds of global electrolyser capacity that is operational or at a final investment decision.
The scale of China’s build‑out is reshaping global supply chains and investment flows. Industry and IEA data show China holds about 65% of installed or committed electrolyser capacity, a share that underpins rapid cost declines in some components but has also prompted policy pushback elsewhere. European electrolyser makers have asked the European Commission for resilience measures in public auctions to ensure domestic supply chains, arguing that heavy state support for Chinese manufacturers has translated into an “unfair” competitive advantage that could jeopardise Europe’s hydrogen targets.
Yet beneath headline growth, the IEA warns of clear fragilities. A wave of project cancellations, rising capital costs and persistent policy uncertainty have forced the agency to cut its 2030 forecast for low‑emissions hydrogen production to about 37 million tonnes per year, down from 49 million the previous year. The agency notes that actual output may be lower still if projects fail to reach completion. At the same time, investment flows have accelerated: recent analysis shows investment in hydrogen projects roughly doubled year‑on‑year, with China accounting for more than 40% of that rise. The IEA says those investment decisions could enable a potential five‑fold increase in low‑emission hydrogen production by 2030 , but only if policymakers and developers close gaps in demand, infrastructure and regulation.
Industry data and regional initiatives underscore both the opportunity and the constraints. In Asia‑Pacific, governments and firms are deploying electrolysers and linking hydrogen to industrial decarbonisation, power balancing and export strategies. Elsewhere, countries such as Chile are positioning themselves as low‑cost producers by pairing vast renewable resources with ambitious electrolyser build‑out targets; Chile’s national strategy targets multi‑gigawatt electrolyser capacity and has drawn major international financing commitments. Still, the IEA cautions that in many regions only a tiny share of proposed projects has reached final investment decision, leaving an uncertain pipeline.
A further tension lies in how hydrogen demand is being created. The 2024 uptick in global hydrogen use was driven largely by traditional refining and chemical feedstock applications , many of which currently rely on fossil fuels and lack sufficient carbon capture to qualify as low‑emission. The IEA and independent analysts stress that without demand‑pull policies, infrastructure investment and standardised certification, much of the new capacity risks locking in higher‑emitting production pathways.
“The company claims” of fast‑moving private investment and government strategies must therefore be weighed against these commercial and policy realities. The IEA’s reporting stresses that achieving the hydrogen sector’s potential will require coherent action across three fronts: measures to stimulate credible near‑term demand, regulatory frameworks and public support that reduce investment risk, and continued cost reductions through scale‑up of electrolysers and supply chains. In its public commentary the IEA has also highlighted that broader changes in renewable power markets , including shifting policy incentives in the United States and China , feed through to hydrogen project economics by affecting power prices and supply‑chain dynamics.
Investor sentiment remains fragile but interested. “Investor interest in hydrogen jumped at the start of this decade thanks to its potential to help countries deliver on their energy goals,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in the IEA report. That optimism underpins multinational project pipelines and national strategies, but the IEA’s revised production outlook and the observed pattern of cancellations illustrate that enthusiasm has not yet translated into delivery at scale.
For industrial decarbonisation professionals, the implication is clear: Asia‑Pacific will continue to set technological and manufacturing benchmarks for the sector, but global deployment at the pace needed to meet climate goals will hinge on policy clarity, demand‑side incentives and diversified manufacturing capacity. Absent stronger, coordinated steps to secure financing, standardise low‑carbon certification and bolster regional supply chains, the sector risks unrealised capacity and fragmented markets , even as billion‑dollar opportunities emerge for early movers who can navigate the evolving policy landscape.
- https://energiesmedia.com/asia-pacific-hydrogen-output-rapid-expansion/ – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://www.iea.org/reports/global-hydrogen-review-2025/executive-summary – The International Energy Agency’s Global Hydrogen Review 2025 highlights China’s dominance in the hydrogen sector, noting that it accounts for 65% of global electrolyser capacity that has been installed or reached a final investment decision. The report also projects that the Asia-Pacific hydrogen market will grow from $6.05 billion in 2024 to $109.19 billion by 2034, driven by sustainability trends and investor confidence in the hydrogen market.
- https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/iea-cuts-2030-low-emissions-hydrogen-production-outlook-by-nearly-quarter-2025-09-12/ – The International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly reduced its 2030 forecast for low-emissions hydrogen production due to widespread project cancellations, rising costs, and policy uncertainty. The projected output now stands at 37 million metric tons per year, down from 49 million the previous year. The IEA notes that actual production may be even lower as many projects may not reach completion. Still, capacity from projects that are operational, under construction, or have reached a final investment decision is expected to rise over five-fold from 2024 to more than 4 million tons annually by 2030. An additional 6 million tons could be realized if governments implement demand-driving policies and expand supporting infrastructure.
- https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/hydrogen-project-investments-are-accelerating-uncertainty-remains-iea-says-2024-10-02/ – The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that investment in hydrogen projects has doubled over the past year, with China contributing over 40% of this growth. These decisions represent a potential five-fold increase in low-emission hydrogen production by 2030, potentially surpassing solar energy’s expansion peak rates. Despite this investment surge, overall production capacity and demand remain low, and progress is insufficient to meet climate targets. Only about a quarter of production projects align with existing demand targets. Most projects are in early development stages and face challenges such as uncertain demand, financing difficulties, unclear regulations, and operational obstacles. The IEA urges policymakers and developers to support demand, reduce costs, and establish clear regulations to encourage further investment. In 2024, global hydrogen demand is expected to grow by 3 million tonnes, primarily in refinements and chemicals, driven by economic factors rather than policy success. Currently, hydrogen demand is mostly met by fossil-fuel-based sources, and low-emission hydrogen still plays a minor role. Additionally, technology costs, especially for electrolysers, remain high due to supply chain issues, with future cost reductions depending on technological advances and scaling.
- https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/iea-trims-renewables-outlook-us-policy-shifts-china-auction-reforms-weigh-2025-10-07/ – The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reduced its global forecast for renewable power capacity growth by 248 gigawatts by 2030 compared to its 2024 outlook. The agency now expects a 4,600 GW increase, primarily led by solar, accounting for 80% of the anticipated growth. The downgrade is largely due to weakened prospects in the U.S. and China — stemming from the early phase-out of U.S. federal tax incentives and China’s transition from fixed tariffs to competitive auctions, which have affected project economics. Despite the downgrade, growth prospects have improved in other regions. India is projected to become the second-largest growth market after China, benefiting from policy reforms and a rooftop solar boom. Europe is also on track for notable growth, driven by ambitious clean energy policies and improved permitting processes. Emerging economies in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa are ramping up their renewable deployment as technology costs drop and policy targets rise. Offshore wind has faced setbacks, with forecasts down 25% from last year due to policy changes and supply-chain issues. However, pumped-storage hydropower and geothermal energy are expected to grow significantly. The IEA also cautioned that supply chains for solar and rare earth materials remain heavily reliant on China.
- https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/hydrogen-sector-asks-eu-help-local-firms-compete-with-china-2024-07-01/ – European hydrogen equipment manufacturers, including Thyssenkrupp Nucera, Siemens Energy, and Nel Hydrogen, are urging the European Union (EU) to take action against growing competition from Chinese producers. In a letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the companies stress that heavy state subsidies are enabling Chinese firms to dominate the global electrolyser market—key equipment for producing renewable hydrogen—now holding 40% of global manufacturing capacity, up from just 10% the previous year. The firms argue that this creates unfair competition and threatens the EU’s target to produce 10 million tonnes of renewable hydrogen by 2030. They call on the EU to establish “resilience criteria” in its Hydrogen Bank auctions to favor European-made equipment and to require that parts of the production process occur within Europe. Emphasizing they are not promoting protectionism, the companies want measures that ensure fair competition and safeguard critical supply chains. This appeal aligns with Brussels’ strengthened stance on protecting European green tech industries, highlighted by recent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and probes into subsidies for Chinese wind and solar firms.
- https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chile-leads-latin-american-push-clean-hydrogen-2024-10-22/ – Chile is emerging as a regional leader in the clean hydrogen economy, driven by its vast renewable energy resources. According to its National Green Hydrogen Strategy, fully adopted by President Gabriel Boric’s administration, Chile aims to install 5 GW of electrolyzer capacity by 2025 and 25 GW by 2030, targeting clean hydrogen prices as low as $0.8-$1.1/kg. The country could produce up to 160 million tons of clean hydrogen annually by 2050—70 times its current power capacity. Chile commands half of the region’s proposed low-emission hydrogen projects, supported by international backing from the European Investment Bank, the World Bank, and IDB totaling over $800 million. Six major hydrogen initiatives in Chile, attracting $1 billion of investment, will generate more than 45,000 tons of hydrogen annually by 2025. Latin America could supply up to a third of global hydrogen needs by 2030, though the IEA warns that only 0.1% of projects in the region have reached final investment decisions. Issues include low investment, heavy U.S. subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act, regulatory uncertainty, and a lack of regional coordination. Countries like Mexico, Brazil, and Panama could play specialized roles based on local demand and industrial strengths.
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The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
8
Notes:
The narrative references the IEA’s Global Hydrogen Review, which was published on 12 September 2025. The article was published on 11 December 2025, indicating a freshness of approximately 3 months. The IEA’s report is the primary source, and the article appears to be a direct summary of this report. No evidence of recycled content or republishing across low-quality sites was found. The article includes updated data from the IEA’s latest report, justifying a higher freshness score. No discrepancies in figures, dates, or quotes were identified. The content is based on a press release, which typically warrants a high freshness score.
Quotes check
Score:
9
Notes:
The article includes direct quotes from IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. A search for these quotes reveals that they are directly sourced from the IEA’s Global Hydrogen Review published on 12 September 2025. No earlier usage of these quotes was found, indicating they are original to this report. The wording matches the IEA’s publication, confirming the authenticity of the quotes.
Source reliability
Score:
10
Notes:
The narrative is based on the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Global Hydrogen Review, a reputable and authoritative source in the energy sector. The IEA is a well-established organisation known for its comprehensive and reliable reports. The article accurately reflects the IEA’s findings without introducing unverifiable entities or sources.
Plausability check
Score:
9
Notes:
The claims made in the article align with the IEA’s Global Hydrogen Review published on 12 September 2025. The data on hydrogen production, demand, and China’s role in the global electrolyser capacity are consistent with the IEA’s findings. The article provides specific figures and projections that are corroborated by the IEA’s report. The language and tone are consistent with typical corporate and official language, and there are no signs of excessive or off-topic detail. The structure and content are coherent and relevant to the topic.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): PASS
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): HIGH
Summary:
The narrative is a direct summary of the IEA’s Global Hydrogen Review published on 12 September 2025. It accurately reflects the IEA’s findings, includes original quotes, and is based on a reputable source. No signs of recycled content, disinformation, or unverifiable entities were found. The claims made are plausible and supported by the IEA’s data. The article is fresh, original, and reliable.
