China's emissions plateau as record renewables boost its climate change progress

New data indicates that China, the world’s largest carbon emitter, may have reached a historic environmental milestone by possibly hitting its peak emissions. An analysis compiled for Carbon Brief by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) reveals that China’s greenhouse gas emissions have been flat or declining for the past 18 months, a trend continuing into the third quarter of 2025. This flattening of emissions comes amid China’s aggressive expansion of clean energy capacity and rapid advancement in electric vehicle adoption.

The CREA-led study, which synthesises data from authoritative Chinese sources including the National Bureau of Statistics, the National Energy Administration, and the China Electricity Council, shows that power sector emissions remained steady or slightly declined in the third quarter of 2025 despite a 6.1% surge in electricity demand. This divergence is largely attributed to China’s remarkable renewable energy expansion. Over the first nine months of 2025, the country added 240 gigawatts (GW) of solar and 61 GW of wind capacity, year-on-year increases of 46% and 11%, respectively. These figures align with national government data reporting that newly installed solar power capacity more than doubled during the first half of 2025, rising 107.1% to 210 million kilowatts, while wind power grew by 98.9% to 50 million kilowatts. Projections anticipate China will sustain this rapid renewable expansion, with an average annual addition of 200-300 million kilowatts during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026–2030).

This explosive buildout of clean energy infrastructure has allowed China to meet all of its power demand growth through clean electricity in early 2025 while concurrently reducing fossil fuel generation and emissions. The nation’s contribution accounted for 55% of the global increase in solar generation and an 82% rise in wind generation during this period, reaffirming China’s position as the leading driver of the global green energy transition. Concurrently, China’s clean energy sector, encompassing renewables, nuclear power, energy storage, electric vehicles (EVs), and electricity grids, grew rapidly in 2024, representing over 10% of the economy with investments and sales reaching 13.6 trillion yuan ($1.9 trillion). These sectors expanded at three times the pace of the overall economy and contributed 26% of GDP growth, signalling their critical role in China’s decarbonisation pathway.

Transportation emissions are also showing promising declines, with oil-related emissions falling by 5% in the third quarter, driven by the expansion of EVs both domestically and globally. China’s EV manufacturers continue to solidify their global market share, further reducing reliance on fossil fuels in the transport sector.

Despite these significant gains, China’s emissions trajectory remains uneven across industrial sectors. Cement and steel production, two of the most carbon-intensive industries, have seen respective emissions decreases of 7% and 3%, yet chemical production emissions rose by 10%, partially offsetting overall reductions. The CREA analysis estimates that China’s total emissions were approximately 3% lower year-on-year by the end of September 2025, but whether this marks a sustained full-year decline hinges on emissions trends into the closing months of the year.

These developments carry substantial symbolic weight as world leaders convene for COP30 in Belém, Brazil. The narrative that other countries should delay climate action until China acts is increasingly outdated given the country’s unprecedented scale and speed of clean energy deployment. CREA’s lead analyst, Lauri Myllyvirta, highlighted the significance of China’s climate progress, stating that no other country is advancing clean energy and reducing carbon intensity as rapidly, considering the country’s economic size and renewable capacity additions.

However, there remains uncertainty around China’s ability to meet its 2020–2025 carbon intensity target completely, even with these strides. According to official statements, China continues to project substantial investment in renewable capacity, expecting to add between 430 and 500 GW of new renewables in 2025 alone, with renewable energy capacity anticipated to double by 2030 to surpass 3,000 GW. This ongoing commitment appears poised to accelerate China’s energy transition, countering international trade barriers and sustaining momentum during the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan period.

In sum, while challenges remain in fully decarbonising heavy industries and chemical production, the emerging evidence suggests China’s era of unchecked emissions growth could be ending. If sustained, this would have profound implications for global climate efforts by potentially realigning emission trajectories worldwide and encouraging other nations to match China’s intensifying pace of clean energy deployment. As COP30 discussions unfold, these findings will undoubtedly influence the global discourse on climate responsibility and ambition.