China’s carbon dioxide emissions have remained steady for 18 months despite a surge in clean energy deployment, hinting at a possible peak ahead of its 2030 climate target. The trend offers a nuanced view of its evolving energy landscape and future climate commitments.
China’s carbon dioxide emissions have remained flat for 18 consecutive months, signalling a potentially pivotal shift in the world’s largest emitter’s climate trajectory. An analysis conducted for the climate publication Carbon Brief by Lauri Myllyvirta of the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) found that emissions were unchanged year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025. This extended period of flat or falling emissions, starting from March 2024, could lead to an overall emissions decline in 2025, provided there is no surge in emissions at the year-end.
The flat emissions trend is notable against the backdrop of a post-pandemic rebound in early 2024, when CO₂ output rose by 0.8%. However, recent quarters show stabilisation, despite a 6.1% increase in electricity demand during the third quarter of 2025. This increase in power consumption was largely met by wind, solar, nuclear, and hydropower sources, which together accounted for approximately 90% of the additional electricity generated. The share of gas-fired power also grew, thereby reducing reliance on coal, which contributed to power sector emissions remaining flat.
The data further highlights sectoral shifts influencing emissions patterns. Transport emissions fell by 5%, reflecting the ongoing rise of electric vehicles and a shift away from fossil-fuelled transport. Simultaneously, declines or plateaus in cement and steel industry emissions were observed. Yet, these reductions were offset by growing emissions from the chemical sector, notably plastic production, which expanded by 12% from January to September 2025. Increased domestic demand for plastics, particularly polyethylene used extensively in food delivery and e-commerce packaging, and strategic industrial shifts spurred by the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions have driven this rise. Chinese refineries have reportedly pivoted towards chemical production as transport fuel demand declines in line with electrification trends.
China’s government formally pledged in September 2025 to cap carbon emissions by 2030 and reduce them by 7% to 10% from the peak by 2035. This was the country’s first explicit commitment to reduce absolute emissions, though the scale of emission cuts was widely seen as modest and drew criticism from international observers. The European Union’s climate commissioner described the target as “disappointing,” citing that China’s planned reductions fall short of what is needed to meet global climate goals.
This period of flat emissions comes amid a record surge in clean energy deployment by China. The country added a remarkable 240 GW of solar capacity and 61 GW of wind in the first nine months of 2025, with growth rates of 46% and 11% respectively in the third quarter alone. Last year, China installed 333 GW of solar power, more than the rest of the world combined, underscoring the scale and pace of renewable expansion. Clean-energy projects, including nuclear power additions, are accelerating further as the 14th five-year plan period draws to a close, expected to push coal-fired power output into decline this year.
However, the landscape remains complex. The 2024 rebound from China’s stringent zero-COVID policies and subsequent energy demand growth initially prevented a drop in emissions for that year, despite a strong clean energy push. Some resurgence of coal use occurred late in 2024 due to industrial stimulus hopes and grid access constraints for renewables. The trajectory for 2025 hinges on whether industrial demand continues to grow, particularly in sectors such as real estate, where an economic slump could alter energy consumption patterns.
China’s emissions plateauing also coincides with heightened global leadership opportunities amid reduced U.S. engagement in international climate agreements during the Trump administration. The country is positioned to assert a more active role in climate diplomacy, including at the ongoing U.N. COP30 summit in Brazil. The Chinese government’s “Ecological Civilisation” policy vision, together with ongoing investment in electric vehicles, industrial emission controls, and green finance, supports this ambition.
While the emissions data offers cautious optimism, the path ahead depends on sustained policy implementation, the adaptation of energy infrastructure to integrate growing renewable capacity, and the balancing of industrial growth with climate commitments. Achieving a meaningful peak and subsequent reduction in emissions before 2030 will be critical, not only for China but for global efforts to limit climate change. As industry professionals focused on decarbonisation will recognise, China’s evolving energy mix and emissions trends represent both a challenge and an opportunity for coordinating international climate and industrial strategies in the coming years.
- https://stratnewsglobal.com/china/china-co2-emissions-remain-flat-for-18-months-analysis-finds/ – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/chinas-co2-emissions-havent-risen-18-months-analysis-finds-2025-11-11/ – An analysis by Lauri Myllyvirta for Carbon Brief reveals that China’s carbon dioxide emissions have remained flat or declined for 18 consecutive months, including through the third quarter of 2025. This trend, which began in March 2024, suggests that emissions could fall in 2025 if there is no late-year surge. While CO2 output rose by 0.8% in 2024 due to a post-pandemic rebound, recent changes indicate a stabilization. Key factors include a 5% decline in transport emissions and flat emissions from the power sector, despite a 6.1% increase in electricity demand. Most of the increased electricity needs were met through renewable and nuclear energy sources, reducing reliance on coal. However, emissions from the chemical industry, particularly plastic production, have risen due to increased domestic demand and strategic shifts spurred by the U.S.-China trade war. China’s September 2025 pledge to cap emissions by 2030 and reduce them by up to 10% by 2035 marked its first formal emission reduction commitment, although critics deemed it insufficient. These developments come amid China’s increasing role in global climate leadership, especially as the U.S. scales back involvement.
- https://www.chinastrategy.org/2025/11/10/chinas-co2-emissions-have-been-flat-or-falling-for-past-18-months-analysis-finds/ – An analysis reveals that China’s carbon dioxide emissions have been flat or falling for 18 months, adding evidence to the hope that the world’s biggest polluter has managed to hit its target of peak CO₂ emissions well ahead of schedule. Rapid increases in the deployment of solar and wind power generation—46% and 11% respectively in the third quarter of this year—meant the country’s energy sector emissions remained flat, even as the demand for electricity increased. China added 240GW of solar capacity in the first nine months of this year and 61GW of wind, putting it on track for another renewable record in 2025. Last year, the country installed 333GW of solar power, more than the rest of the world combined. The analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea), for the science and climate policy website Carbon Brief, found China’s CO₂ emissions were unchanged from a year earlier in the third quarter of 2025, thanks in part to declining emissions in the travel, cement, and steel industries.
- https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/analysis-record-surge-clean-energy-2024-halts-chinas-co2-rise – A record surge of clean energy kept China’s carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions below the previous year’s levels in the last 10 months of 2024. However, an analysis for Carbon Brief, based on official figures and commercial data, shows that the tail end of China’s rebound from zero-COVID measures in January and February, combined with abnormally high growth in energy demand, prevented a drop in CO₂ emissions in 2024 overall. While China’s CO₂ output in 2024 grew by an estimated 0.8% year-on-year, emissions were lower than in the 12 months to February 2024. Other key findings include: China’s CO₂ emissions grew 0.6% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, as hopes of stimulus measures pushed up industrial coal use and oil demand. In addition, wind and solar fell short of expected levels in the final quarter of 2024, likely as a result of being denied grid access in favour of coal power, which was flat year-on-year. Clean-energy capacity growth is expected to accelerate in 2025 as large-scale wind, solar, and nuclear projects race to finish before the 14th five-year plan period comes to an end. Industrial electricity demand growth has slowed since summer 2024, and total energy demand growth eased in the fourth quarter of the year. These factors would be expected to push China’s coal-power output into decline in 2025, a shift that would have international significance for energy markets and emissions. However, another period of industrial demand growth driven by government stimulus efforts could change this picture, particularly if the real-estate slump turns around.
- https://energyandcleanair.org/analysis-record-surge-of-clean-energy-in-2024-halts-chinas-co2-rise/ – A massive surge of clean energy kept China’s carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions below the previous year’s levels across the last 10 months of 2024. However, an analysis for Carbon Brief, based on official figures and commercial data, shows that the tail end of China’s rebound from zero-COVID measures in January and February, combined with abnormally high growth in energy demand, prevented a drop in CO₂ emissions in 2024 overall. While China’s CO₂ output in 2024 grew by an estimated 0.8% year-on-year, emissions were lower than in the 12 months to February 2024. Other key findings include: China’s CO₂ emissions grew 0.6% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, as hopes of stimulus measures pushed up industrial coal use and oil demand. In addition, wind and solar fell short of expected levels in the final quarter of 2024, likely as a result of being denied grid access in favour of coal power, which was flat year-on-year. Clean-energy capacity growth is expected to accelerate in 2025 as large-scale wind, solar, and nuclear projects race to finish before the 14th five-year plan period comes to an end. Industrial electricity demand growth has slowed since summer 2024, and total energy demand growth eased in the fourth quarter of the year. These factors would be expected to push China’s coal-power output into decline in 2025, a shift that would have international significance for energy markets and emissions. However, another period of industrial demand growth driven by government stimulus efforts could change this picture, particularly if the real-estate slump turns around.
- https://www.worldenergynews.com/news/analysis-finds-that-china-co2-emission-hasn-767711 – An analysis finds that China’s CO₂ emissions haven’t increased in 18 months. Carbon Brief’s analysis found that China’s carbon dioxide emission was flat on an annual basis in the third quarter. This extends a streak of 18 months with flat or declining emissions. Lauri Myllyvirta, of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air in Helsinki, said that the trend started in March 2024 and could mean CO₂ emissions will fall this year if there is no year-end spike. Carbon Brief’s previous analysis showed that CO₂ production rose by 0.8% in 2024, following a rebound after the pandemic at the beginning of the year. In September, the government pledged to cap carbon emissions in 2030, and by 2035 reduce them by 7-10% from this as-yet unidentified peak. This was China’s very first commitment to reduce its emissions. However, the level of reductions fell short of expectations. The EU climate commissioner described it as “disappointing”. China has an opportunity to take a more active role in this matter at the U.N.
- https://elpais.com/clima-y-medio-ambiente/2025-05-26/china-logra-reducir-las-emisiones-de-co-a-traves-de-las-tecnologias-limpias-a-pesar-de-la-subida-de-la-demanda-energetica.html – China logró reducir sus emisiones de CO₂ en un 1,6% interanual en el primer trimestre de 2025 y un 1% en los últimos 12 meses, siendo la primera vez que tal descenso está vinculado directamente a la expansión de energías limpias como la solar, eólica y nuclear, según un estudio de Carbon Brief. A pesar de ser el principal emisor mundial de gases de efecto invernadero, China ha incrementado significativamente su capacidad de generación renovable, representando el 89% de la nueva capacidad instalada en el primer trimestre del año. Además, ha acelerado la aprobación de nuevos proyectos nucleares. Aunque las emisiones siguen cerca del máximo histórico, el descenso ofrece señales prometedoras hacia el objetivo de alcanzar el pico de emisiones antes de 2030. El gobierno chino mantiene su compromiso climático, apoyado por la visión de “Civilización Ecológica” del presidente Xi Jinping. Factores como la expansión de los vehículos eléctricos, medidas de reducción de emisiones industriales y crecimiento de la financiación verde refuerzan esta tendencia. No obstante, el futuro dependerá de las políticas económicas internas y de la adaptación de la red eléctrica. De consolidarse, esta tendencia beneficiaría no solo a China, sino al clima global.
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The narrative presents recent data on China’s CO₂ emissions, with the earliest known publication date being November 11, 2025. The same analysis was reported by Reuters on the same date. The report is based on a press release from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), which typically warrants a high freshness score. No significant discrepancies in figures, dates, or quotes were found. The content appears original and not recycled from other sources. No earlier versions show different figures, dates, or quotes. The article includes updated data and does not recycle older material. No republishing across low-quality sites or clickbait networks was identified.
