China's heavy-duty truck market shifts as NEV registrations surpass diesel in 2025

China closed 2025 with a structural shift in its heavy‑duty truck market as registrations of new energy vehicles (NEVs) , encompassing battery‑electric, plug‑in hybrid and range‑extended models , overtook diesel for the first time in December, industry data shows.

CV World, which tracks the commercial vehicle sector, reports that 45,300 NEV heavy‑duty trucks were newly registered in December, representing 54% of that month’s market and a near‑tripling versus December 2024. The full year produced 231,100 NEV registrations, a 182% increase on 2024, and lifted the annual NEV penetration rate to 29% from 14% the year before. Overall heavy‑duty truck demand expanded by 21% year‑on‑year in 2025, but electrified models grew much faster, particularly in the final quarter.

Market observers attribute the year‑end spike partly to policy timing. CV World’s analysis points to the withdrawal of a vehicle trade‑in subsidy that had been available for buyers trading used trucks for new ones, and to buyers accelerating purchases amid expectations of higher NEV purchase taxes in 2026. CN EV Post and other specialist outlets also note that NEV registrations rose steadily through 2025 , from a weak seasonal start to market shares near 25% mid‑year, then into the 30% range before the December surge.

Commercial battery technology and total cost of ownership calculations have reinforced buyer confidence. CATL, the battery maker viewed as pivotal to Chinese commercial vehicle electrification, has expanded its commercial battery offerings under the Tectrans/TECTRANS family and rolled out swappable battery solutions designed for rapid replenishment at specialised stations. According to CATL’s product announcements, these systems target the key operational constraints for heavy‑duty fleets: range, charging time and durability.

CN EV Post reported a calculation from Xia Nan, sales director for commercial vehicles at CATL, estimating that an NEV commercial vehicle could save roughly 1.2 million yuan (about €146,000) over a ten‑year operating cycle compared with an internal combustion equivalent. Such operating‑cost advantages are a major driver of fleet electrification decisions for high‑mileage applications.

CATL has also been pursuing regulatory conformity and ecosystem solutions. The company announced that multiple product lines passed the GB 38031‑2025 traction battery safety testing regime, and it has introduced integrated chassis and powertrain packages aimed at improving range and cargo efficiency for light and medium commercial vehicles. Those developments are intended to reduce barriers to adoption by lowering downtime, improving energy density and simplifying maintenance.

At the manufacturing level, industry concentration is already pronounced. ICCT analysis published in 2025 found that the five largest producers account for roughly three‑quarters of diesel heavy‑truck sales, while a different set of five leading manufacturers control about 61% of the zero‑emission truck segment. “This suggests that the market for zero‑emission heavy‑duty trucks has reached a similar level of maturity as the market for internal combustion engine trucks, with leading original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) dominating an increasing share of the market,” the authors concluded.

For industrial operators considering decarbonisation strategies, the Chinese data underline two practical realities. First, policy design and timing remain powerful demand levers: subsidies, tax expectations and regulatory standards can prompt fleet renewals and compress investment horizons. Second, technology and total‑cost‑of‑ownership dynamics are beginning to favour electrified heavy vehicles in many use cases, particularly where high utilisation and concentrated routes allow faster payback from lower energy and maintenance costs.

These developments in China carry implications for global supply chains and fleet procurement. Major battery suppliers are scaling dedicated commercial products and ancillary services such as battery swapping and integrated chassis solutions, while OEM consolidation in the zero‑emission segment points to a faster channel to scale for operators buying fleets at volume. For industrial decarbonisation planners, the priority is to model fleet‑specific economics under realistic duty cycles, account for evolving policy settings and engage with OEMs and energy suppliers on charging, swapping and total lifecycle costs as electrified heavy vehicles move from niche to mainstream.