Global South drives rapid expansion of affordable EVs, challenging industry dominance and climate goals

Ann Arbor , Electric vehicles (EVs) are no longer a rich-world curiosity or a China‑only story: adoption has accelerated across the Global South, reshaping competitive dynamics in automotive manufacturing and industrial decarbonisation.

According to analysis published on Informed Comment by Juan Cole, Ember’s researchers argue that hybrid and battery electric vehicle adoption has spread markedly beyond China, Europe and North America. Ember, the energy think‑tank, reported that “39 countries have reached an EV sales share larger than 10% in 2025, a third of which are outside Europe.” That shift is evident across Southeast Asia, Latin America, India and parts of Africa, the piece says, and is reflected in multiple industry datasets and regional studies.

China remains the central engine of this transition. Industry reporting and international data show China accounted for the lion’s share of recent growth: the International Energy Agency projects global EV sales will exceed 20 million by 2025 and notes that electric cars comprised almost half of new car sales in China in 2024. The Clean Energy Ministerial’s Global EV Outlook 2025 highlights monthly Chinese EV sales averaging about 875,000 in early 2025 and electric sales shares above 50% in key months, underlining Beijing’s dominant market position. Gartner’s forecast likewise points to rapid expansion , estimating some 85 million EVs on the road by end‑2025, driven primarily by China (58%) and Europe (24%) , and that around 73% of those vehicles will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs).

The Global South’s uptake is concentrated in locally affordable, China‑made models rather than premium marques. Juan Cole notes that BYD, Geely and other Chinese manufacturers have produced EVs at roughly 65% of Tesla’s price, making them far more accessible across emerging markets. Ember’s analysis indicates most of the growth in Chinese EV exports is occurring outside the OECD club of relatively wealthy nations, a pattern echoed by observers who warn that the manufacturer of affordable electrified transport stands to gain long‑term industrial advantage.

ASEAN has emerged as a focal region for this diffusion. PwC’s 2025 ASEAN‑6 eReadiness Survey reports EV sales across ASEAN‑6 rose 63% in the first half of 2025, with an average adoption rate of 18%. Country‑level results are striking: Vietnam saw nearly 40% of new vehicle registrations be electric in 2025 , higher than the EU average and the UK’s , while Singapore recorded 43% electric new‑car sales in the first nine months of the year. PwC also reports Indonesia’s EV market grew 49% to an 18% share of vehicle sales, slightly above the ASEAN average; the consultancy’s survey found 99% owner satisfaction in Indonesia, the highest among surveyed markets. Government and multilateral projections include ambitious manufacturing and fleet targets: UNESCAP documentation shows Indonesia aiming for a fleet of 15 million EVs by 2030, and Malaysia setting staged targets culminating in a far higher electric share by mid‑century.

Latin America and South Asia are following similar trajectories. Cole reports EVs accounted for about 9–10% of new passenger car sales in Brazil in 2025, where a relatively clean electricity grid makes electrification especially carbon‑effective, and roughly 8–9% in Mexico, where Chinese brands are visible at point of sale. India’s EV share remains lower in percentage terms but is material in absolute numbers: roughly 5% of new passenger cars in 2025 translates to some 225,000 EVs annually given India’s large market. Turkey’s 17% EV share , largely battery electric , and its mix of domestic models and Chinese investment provide another example of diversified pathways to electrification.

Policy and market implications for industrial decarbonisation are significant. Road transport accounts for roughly 12% of global carbon emissions, according to Yale Climate Connections analysis cited in Cole’s piece, so accelerating electrification can yield substantial emissions reductions , provided grids and charging infrastructure decarbonise in parallel. The competitive angle is equally consequential: countries and firms that master low‑cost EV production and the upstream supply chain (cells, power electronics, semiconductors) stand to capture manufacturing, export and job‑creation opportunities across the coming decades. Juan Cole’s commentary characterises BYD’s founder Wang Chuanfu as a 21st‑century equivalent of Henry Ford, reflecting the view that national champions in EVs could displace legacy auto and fossil‑fuel incumbents; that characterisation should be read as opinion about market leadership rather than an empirical claim.

There are, however, caveats and divergent dynamics to note. Adoption rates vary with income, urban form, two‑wheel vehicle prevalence and policy regimes; some rapid percentage increases in smaller markets reflect low starting points. Infrastructure and grid decarbonisation remain critical constraints: the climate benefit of electrification depends on the power mix and the speed of clean‑energy deployment. Meanwhile, legacy oil and ICEV interests have targeted lower‑income markets in hopes of sustaining internal combustion demand, but recent import restrictions , Cole cites Ethiopia’s ban on gasoline car imports , and the spread of inexpensive EV models complicate that strategy.

For industrial strategists and decarbonisation professionals, the evidence assembled across market research, multilateral reports and regional studies points to a decisive commercial and environmental inflection. According to Gartner and the IEA, the next few years will see EV fleets scaling rapidly; PwC and UNESCAP show regional targets and satisfaction metrics that support sustained uptake; and Ember’s country‑level sales analysis demonstrates that this growth is no longer concentrated in high‑income markets.

The policy imperative is clear: to realise the emissions and economic benefits of electrified transport, governments and industry must co‑ordinate on grid decarbonisation, charging infrastructure, battery supply chains and supportive regulatory frameworks that foster local value‑add. As the landscape shifts, the maker of mass‑market EVs and the architect of supportive industrial policy may become the defining industrial power of the 21st century.