Green hydrogen set to dominate global low‑carbon market by 2030, says new analysis

New analysis of the low‑carbon hydrogen market points to a dramatic shift towards electrolyser‑based “green” hydrogen over the remainder of the decade, with industry forecasters predicting it will supply the vast majority of certified low‑carbon hydrogen by 2030.

According to GlobalData’s Low‑Carbon Hydrogen Market Report, Update 2025, green hydrogen produced by renewable‑powered electrolysers is expected to expand rapidly and account for about 88.6% of global low‑carbon hydrogen production by 2030, up from roughly 14.9% in 2024. The research house says total low‑carbon hydrogen capacity could grow from an estimated 0.6 million tonnes per annum today to around 14 million tonnes per annum by 2030, driven largely by projects in the pipeline that rely on renewable electricity. GlobalData adds that roughly 83–85% of the capacity scheduled to come online this decade is green hydrogen, with blue hydrogen and other low‑carbon production routes contributing only a minority share. According to the report, blue hydrogen’s pre‑existing dominance , it accounted for about 76.3% of low‑carbon output in 2024 , is projected to fall to near 11.3% by 2030 as planned electrolyser capacity is commissioned.

Industry commentators say the projected reordering of supply reflects steep falls in renewable electricity costs, rising electrolyser deployments and growing corporate and government commitments to decarbonise hard‑to‑abate sectors such as refining, chemicals and heavy transport. Power‑Technology’s analysis of the GlobalData report highlights substantial capacity additions expected in the Americas as a material driver of the expansion.

Policy support and new infrastructure will be critical if the forecasted pipeline is to be realised, GlobalData notes. The firm warns that without enabling market and grid arrangements, permitting reform and investment in transport and storage, many announced projects may be delayed or scaled back. A thematic GlobalData study on the hydrogen economy described the period to 2030 as “critical”, with success hinging on coordinated action across supply‑chain investment, power market reforms and international offtake arrangements.

Not all market studies present identical magnitude estimates, however. A January 2025 market report circulated by BGateway projects far larger figures for 2030, asserting that total active and pipeline low‑carbon hydrogen capacity exceeds 200 million tonnes per annum and that green plants represent roughly 92% of that total. That discrepancy underlines the uncertainty that still surrounds pipeline conversion rates, differing definitions of “active” versus “pipeline” capacity and the treatment of project attrition in modelling exercises.

For industrial decarbonisation professionals the implications are immediate. A transition to green hydrogen at scale would reframe demand for renewable generation, grid flexibility and long‑duration storage, and shift decarbonisation strategies for ammonia, methanol and steel producers that have been evaluating blue hydrogen with carbon capture as a near‑term route. According to the GlobalData reports, unlocking the projected green‑hydrogen volumes will require accelerated electrolyser manufacturing, stronger links between renewable project developers and hydrogen offtakers, coordinated permitting, and clarity on hydrogen transport and storage networks.

The industry response to the forecasts has been mixed: developers and equipment manufacturers point to the strong pipeline as evidence of market momentum, while some analysts caution that policy uncertainty, financing gaps and supply‑chain bottlenecks could slow delivery. As firms and governments finalise hydrogen strategies, the coming years will determine whether planned green capacity is realised at the scale necessary to meet these forecasts or whether a more gradual, mixed‑technology pathway prevails.