Soil carbon positive fertiliser systems set for rapid global growth amid verification challenges

The global market for soil carbon positive fertilizer systems is on course for rapid expansion over the next decade as policymakers, agribusinesses and farmers increasingly treat soils as active carbon sinks and a strategic element of decarbonisation plans. According to analysis by Fact.MR, the sector is projected to grow from USD 157.83 million in 2026 to USD 745.79 million by 2036, a compound annual growth rate of 16.8% that underscores rising demand for inputs that both restore soil health and sequester carbon.

The market drivers are familiar to practitioners focused on industrial decarbonisation: climate‑smart agriculture initiatives, the expansion of agricultural carbon markets, and regulatory and subsidy frameworks that reward lower‑emission production. According to Fact.MR, soil carbon positive fertilizers, ranging from organic carbon formulations and biofertilisers to compost‑derived products, are being adopted to improve soil organic carbon, enhance microbial activity and reduce reliance on synthetic nutrient inputs. The report emphasises regenerative agriculture as the fastest‑growing farming type and identifies biofertilisers and microbial inputs as the most rapidly expanding product segment.

Regional dynamics are reinforcing this trajectory. North America remains a leading market, propelled by private‑sector climate programmes and public support for carbon farming. Industry research shows that the United States has directed substantial funding to climate‑smart agriculture initiatives in recent years, including the USDA’s Climate‑Smart Commodities programme, which allocated significant funding to pilot and scale projects aimed at measuring and verifying greenhouse‑gas outcomes. Europe’s uptake is being driven by stringent sustainability mandates and soil protection policies, while East Asia and emerging markets in India, Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa are recording steady adoption as governments and development agencies prioritise soil restoration and sustainable intensification.

Independent market studies provide useful context on scale and complementary markets. A broader soil amendments market analysis published by Mordor Intelligence valued soil amendments at USD 8.6 billion in 2025 and projected growth to USD 13.5 billion by 2030, noting increasing use of biochar and links between carbon‑credit incentives and soil health schemes. Separate market research on low‑carbon fertilisers and biofertiliser markets shows larger addressable markets and regional variation, with North America and Europe commanding substantial shares due to early policy and market development. These adjacent market trends suggest significant upside for soil carbon positive systems as part of integrated soil management strategies.

Evidence for the carbon‑sequestration efficacy of biological soil amendments is accumulating but remains variable in scale and measurement. A recent summary of research cited by a trade release shows treated agricultural soils can sequester an additional 0.5–1.0 tonne of carbon per hectare annually compared with conventional management, while industry analyses highlight that over 140 million acres of U.S. farmland have adopted conservation practices that enhance soil carbon. Such findings strengthen the case for fertiliser systems designed to support soil biology, but they also expose the sector to a key limitation: measurement, reporting and verification.

Measurement and verification complexity is a central constraint for market expansion into carbon‑crediting frameworks. Fact.MR and other market reports note that quantifying soil carbon changes reliably over time remains technically challenging and costly, and that verification burdens can limit smallholder participation. These technical hurdles intersect with commercial realities: soil carbon positive inputs often carry higher upfront costs than conventional fertilisers, creating adoption barriers particularly among resource‑constrained growers despite projected long‑term agronomic and ecosystem benefits.

Producers and service providers are responding along two fronts. First, agritech and input companies are investing in microbial technologies, bio‑based formulations and compost‑derivative products designed to raise soil organic matter while delivering crop nutrition. Fact.MR lists multinational fertiliser and ag‑input firms alongside specialist biotech and carbon platforms as active players, while other market analyses note growing investment in precision soil monitoring and measurement solutions to underpin carbon claims. Second, public and private incentive structures, subsidies, grant programmes and carbon purchasing pilots, are being used to lower the financial entry costs for farmers and to build datasets needed for robust verification.

For industrial decarbonisation professionals, the sector presents both opportunity and caution. Soil carbon positive fertilisers can form a practical component of supply‑chain emissions reduction and nature‑positive sourcing strategies, particularly when integrated with on‑farm conservation practices and precision application. However, the degree to which such inputs deliver verifiable, long‑term sequestration at scale depends on measurement systems, crop and soil context, and careful programme design that aligns incentives across supply chains.

Looking ahead to 2036, Fact.MR’s forecast positions soil carbon positive fertiliser systems as an emerging but influential niche within the broader transition to low‑carbon agriculture. Industry projections and adjacent market studies suggest substantial market enlargement if verification frameworks improve, carbon prices sustain upward pressure, and policy incentives remain favourable. At the same time, commercial uptake will hinge on lowering upfront costs for farmers, simplifying measurement and verification, and demonstrating consistent agronomic returns across diverse production systems, requirements that must be addressed for agriculture to fulfil its potential as a scalable carbon sink.