Study shows current climate pledges fall short of limiting warming to 1.5 °C, highlighting economic stakes

A modelling study led by Assistant Professor Taeyoung Jin of Jeonbuk National University, with colleagues at Pusan National University, finds that the world’s current climate pledges are unlikely to keep warming within the Paris Agreement limits and quantifies the economic stakes for industrial decarbonisation strategies. Using the RICE-2010 integrated assessment framework, the team simulated interactions between economic growth, greenhouse gas emissions and climate feedbacks to project outcomes through the year 2300 under four alternative pathways: business-as-usual, a social-welfare optimiser, a net-zero pathway based on current national commitments, and a trajectory consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C. According to the paper published in Environmental Science & Policy, the pathway reflecting present pledges still yields a long-term warming of about 2.48 °C, well above the 2 °C objective.

The simulations make clear that partial fulfilment of current commitments improves prospects relative to unconstrained emissions but falls short of the Paris targets. Under the business-as-usual run the model projects extreme outcomes , global temperatures rising by as much as 7 °C by 2300 , illustrating the scale of avoided risk embedded in mitigation choices. Industry and policy decisions that move systems toward the net-zero scenario nevertheless reduce cumulative damages substantially compared with inaction, but the report emphasises that this reduction remains insufficient to avert materially greater climate impacts than those anticipated under a 1.5 °C-aligned pathway.

The work converts climate trajectories into economic terms to make the trade-offs tangible for decision makers in heavy industry and infrastructure sectors. The authors estimate that climate damages could approach $65 trillion by 2200 if deeper mitigation is not pursued; by contrast the net-zero pathway tied to current pledges reduces those damages to roughly $19 trillion, while a 1.5 °C-consistent route would lower losses further to an estimated $15 trillion. These figures highlight that incremental tightening of near-term targets, rather than deferring action, produces outsized long-term economic benefits , a critical point for capital-intensive firms weighing retrofit, electrification and fuel-switching investments.

A particularly policy-relevant result is the study’s quantification of an additional near-term emissions gap. The authors find that around 5 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent extra reductions by 2030 are required to place the global trajectory more clearly within a 2 °C boundary. For industrial decarbonisation practitioners this implies more aggressive deployment of mitigation levers across sectors , faster roll-out of low-carbon process technologies, accelerated electrification of heat, deeper energy efficiency in manufacturing, and scaling of carbon removals where emissions are hard to abate.

Methodologically, the paper illustrates the value of integrated assessment modelling for blending macroeconomic pathways with physical climate response and damage functions. According to the study, this allows evaluation of feedbacks such as how climate damages subtract from future economic output and thereby influence emissions trajectories , a dynamic that is often omitted from single-discipline analyses. For industrial planners, that means long-term project valuations should account for both rising physical risks and the evolving policy landscape implied by globally aggregated pledges.

Dr Jin underlines the urgency of earlier and more coordinated action, saying, “While current climate promises mark important progress, they fall short of the transformative change needed to safeguard our planet’s future. Proactive and immediate policy adjustments, even if economically challenging in the short term, are indispensable to avert severe long-term damages.” His comments, included in the university’s summary of the research, echo the paper’s core prescription: near-term ambition matters for both risk reduction and the economic calculus of decarbonisation.

For corporate sustainability and industrial transition strategists the implications are clear. Meeting current pledges will reduce but not eliminate exposure to severe climate-driven physical and market shocks; aligning with a 1.5–2 °C pathway requires accelerated policy tightening, larger near-term emissions cuts and deeper deployment of low-carbon technologies. According to the publication, such measures will not only curb temperature rise but also materially lower projected macroeconomic damages , an argument framed in the study as both an environmental imperative and a fiscal one for long-lived industrial assets.

The research arrives as governments prepare to review national commitments ahead of the 2030 horizon, providing quantified targets and economic translations that can inform public policy and private-sector roadmaps. According to the study by Jin et al., closing the identified 2030 gap and strengthening cooperative mechanisms will be essential to steer global emissions onto a pathway compatible with the Paris Agreement’s objectives.