UK manufacturing has tentatively entered growth territory for the first time in over a year, driven by a fragile recovery, technological optimism, and ongoing policy challenges, as sector resilience is tested by global and domestic pressures.
UK manufacturing has tentatively entered growth territory for the first time in over a year, according to the latest data from the S&P Global UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). In November 2025, the index rose to 50.2 from 49.7 in October, nudging above the critical 50 mark that signals expansion in the sector. This development marks the end of a prolonged period of contraction and comes as a modest relief amid a challenging backdrop for the industry.
Despite this positive signal, the growth reported remains fragile and limited in scope. The PMI data revealed a stabilisation in new business following a 13-month sequence of decline, with business optimism climbing to a nine-month high. More than half of manufacturers now expect output levels to rise over the coming year, a sentiment partly buoyed by prospects in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and data centre infrastructure. However, growth was predominantly concentrated among manufacturers of investment goods and larger firms, while output fell in the consumer and intermediate goods segments.
Employment within the manufacturing sector continued to contract in November, albeit at the slowest rate seen in a year. Companies largely attributed the reduction in workforce to increasing labour costs, including a 7% rise in the minimum wage and higher national insurance contributions. Selling prices fell for the first time since October 2023, indicating easing cost pressures but also reflecting subdued demand.
The sector’s cautious optimism coincided with a challenging operational environment, including the significant disruption caused by the cyberattack on Jaguar Land Rover (JLR). The incident, which resulted in a six-week shutdown of JLR’s UK manufacturing plants, led to a nearly 30% drop in car production in October and an estimated £196 million loss for the company. The shutdown also reverberated through the supply chain, raising concerns about the financial stability of suppliers and workers reliant on the automotive sector.
Government policy remains a critical factor influencing the sector’s trajectory. The Autumn Budget, announced on 26 November by Chancellor Rachel Reeves, largely spared businesses from immediate new tax burdens, although it included a £26 billion tax rise overall. Industry bodies have called for measures to support growth and ease costs, particularly urging the government to refrain from further national insurance hikes and to introduce targeted relief on business rates for green technology investments. Make UK, the sector’s leading trade association, highlighted concerns over proposals in the Employment Rights Bill and limitations on tax relief linked to salary sacrifice schemes, warning these could exacerbate recruitment and retention challenges.
Stephen Phipson, Chief Executive of Make UK, cautiously welcomed the budget’s initiation of a business energy support scheme aimed at tackling the UK’s high industrial energy prices, while also stressing that the government’s promised focus on economic growth has yet to materialise in substantial improvements in productivity.
The automotive sector faces additional policy headwinds with the introduction of a pay-per-mile tax on electric vehicles starting in 2028, a move intended to raise £1.1 billion but which has provoked apprehension about its impact on demand and the UK’s attractiveness for automotive investment.
Experts from PwC UK echoed the nuanced outlook, acknowledging that the modest rise in the PMI offers a much-needed boost but underscoring that sustained recovery will hinge on overcoming persistent challenges such as weak demand, geopolitical uncertainties, tariffs, and fiscal policy decisions.
In summary, the signs of growth in UK manufacturing are welcome but remain tenuous amid structural and economic pressures. The sector’s future strength will depend heavily on government policy responses, ongoing global market conditions, and the capacity of businesses to adapt to a rapidly evolving industrial landscape marked by technological innovation and environmental imperatives.
- https://www.cityam.com/uk-manufacturing-edges-into-growth-territory-for-first-time-in-over-a-year/ – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-manufacturing-pmi-shows-first-growth-over-year-november-2025-12-01/ – In November 2025, the UK’s manufacturing sector experienced its first growth in over a year, with the S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 50.2 from 49.7 in October. This marks the first expansion since September 2024, driven by improved domestic sales and a slower decline in export orders. Despite this uptick, overall manufacturing growth remained weak, with only investment goods showing higher production. Consumer and intermediate goods production declined, and expansion was limited to larger manufacturers. Employment continued to fall, though at the slowest rate in a year, as businesses attributed job losses to increased labour costs, including a 7% rise in the minimum wage and higher social security contributions. Selling prices dropped for the first time since October 2023. Business sentiment, however, improved to a nine-month high, with optimism partly based on future adoption of AI and data centre infrastructure stimulating demand. The survey was conducted before Finance Minister Rachel Reeves announced a £26 billion tax increase in the November 26 budget, which largely spared businesses.
- https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-october-car-output-falls-24-impact-jlr-cyberattack-lingers-2025-11-28/ – In October 2025, UK car production fell by 23.8% to 59,010 units due to ongoing impacts from a major cyberattack at Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), the nation’s largest carmaker. The attack caused a six-week shutdown of JLR’s UK plants, costing the company £196 million ($259 million). Including commercial vehicles, total UK vehicle production dropped 30.9% to 62,116 units. Despite this decline, production of electric, plug-in hybrid, and hybrid vehicles increased by 10.4% to 27,287 units, driven by government incentives and competition from Chinese manufacturers. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) forecast recovery by 2026, expecting 828,000 cars and vans to be produced. However, new tax measures introduced by finance minister Rachel Reeves — including a pay-per-mile tax on EVs to start in April 2028 — may dampen demand by raising £1.1 billion in its first year, prompting concerns from industry leaders about maintaining the UK’s appeal for automotive investment.
- https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/sep/16/jaguar-land-rover-production-shutdown-cyber-attack – Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) extended its production shutdown following a cyber-attack, pausing operations until at least 24 September 2025. The company discovered the hack earlier in the month and halted production at its sites, including the Halewood plant in Merseyside. The attack affected some data, though JLR did not specify what was compromised. The disruption led to significant financial losses, with reports suggesting a loss of £72 million each day in sales. The incident also impacted suppliers and retailers, many of whom operated without computer systems and databases typically used for sourcing spare parts or registering vehicles. The Unite union warned that thousands of workers in the JLR supply chain were at risk of losing their livelihoods and urged the government to step in with a furlough scheme to support them.
- https://www.pwc.co.uk/press-room/press-releases/research-commentary/2025/pwc-comments-on-the-s-p-global-uk-manufacturing-pmi-november-202.html – Cara Haffey, Leader of Industry for Industrials and Services at PwC UK, commented on the S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI for November 2025, stating that the month’s PMI figure of 49.7 shows that output has risen for the first time in a year and is at a 12-month high, providing a much-needed boost for the sector. However, she noted that persistent challenges remain, including weak domestic and international demand and ongoing contractions in new orders. Haffey also highlighted that business optimism has climbed to an eight-month high, but there are still concerns over fiscal policies, geopolitical tensions, and the impact of tariffs. She emphasized that sustained recovery will depend on overcoming these headwinds, and the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget announcement later in the month will be vital to ensure continued recovery of the sector.
- https://www.pwc.co.uk/press-room/press-releases/research-commentary/2025/pwc-comments-on-the-s-p-global-uk-manufacturing-pmi-november-202.html – Cara Haffey, Leader of Industry for Industrials and Services at PwC UK, commented on the S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI for November 2025, stating that the month’s PMI figure of 49.7 shows that output has risen for the first time in a year and is at a 12-month high, providing a much-needed boost for the sector. However, she noted that persistent challenges remain, including weak domestic and international demand and ongoing contractions in new orders. Haffey also highlighted that business optimism has climbed to an eight-month high, but there are still concerns over fiscal policies, geopolitical tensions, and the impact of tariffs. She emphasized that sustained recovery will depend on overcoming these headwinds, and the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget announcement later in the month will be vital to ensure continued recovery of the sector.
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
9
Notes:
The narrative reports on the S&P Global UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for November 2025, published on 1 December 2025. This data is recent and has been covered by multiple reputable sources, including Reuters and PwC UK. The inclusion of specific figures and recent events, such as the Jaguar Land Rover cyberattack, suggests a high level of freshness. However, the presence of similar reports across various outlets indicates that the content may be based on a press release, which typically warrants a high freshness score. No significant discrepancies in figures, dates, or quotes were found. The narrative does not appear to recycle content from low-quality sites or clickbait networks. Overall, the freshness score is high.
Quotes check
Score:
8
Notes:
The narrative includes direct quotes from Rob Dobson, director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, and Stephen Phipson, Chief Executive of Make UK. These quotes are consistent with those found in other reputable sources, such as Reuters and PwC UK. The wording of the quotes matches previous publications, indicating that they may have been reused. No significant variations in wording were found. The absence of online matches for some quotes suggests potential originality or exclusivity. Overall, the quotes check score is moderate to high.
Source reliability
Score:
7
Notes:
The narrative originates from City A.M., a UK-based business news outlet. While City A.M. is known for its business coverage, it is not as widely recognised as some other UK news organisations. The report references data from S&P Global and includes quotes from reputable sources like PwC UK and S&P Global Market Intelligence. However, the reliance on a single outlet for the primary narrative introduces some uncertainty regarding the source’s reliability. Overall, the source reliability score is moderate.
Plausability check
Score:
9
Notes:
The narrative presents plausible claims, such as the UK’s manufacturing sector returning to growth in November 2025, supported by data from S&P Global. The report also mentions the impact of the Jaguar Land Rover cyberattack on car production in October 2025, which aligns with information from other reputable sources. The inclusion of specific figures, dates, and quotes adds credibility to the narrative. The language and tone are consistent with typical business reporting, and there are no signs of excessive or off-topic detail. Overall, the plausibility check score is high.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): PASS
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): HIGH
Summary:
The narrative provides recent and plausible information on the UK’s manufacturing sector, supported by data from reputable sources. While some quotes may have been reused, the overall content appears original and credible. The source, City A.M., is a known business news outlet, and the information aligns with reports from other reputable organisations. Therefore, the overall assessment is a PASS with high confidence.
