Analysis by GlobalData predicts the US will install over 730 GW of solar capacity by 2035, transforming its renewable landscape despite supply chain and policy hurdles.
The United States is on course to install 737.8 GW of solar capacity by the end of 2035, according to analysis by London-based consultancy GlobalData, a trajectory that would make solar the largest single contributor to the nation’s renewable power mix over the next decade. According to GlobalData, the U.S. will add 47.9 GW of solar in 2025, slightly below the record 49 GW deployed in 2024, before a temporary slowdown through the late 2020s and renewed acceleration in the early 2030s that lifts annual additions above 50 GW by 2034–2035.
GlobalData’s projection outlines a near-term cadence of 42.2 GW of new solar in 2026, 44.8 GW in 2027, then roughly 41–42 GW per year in 2028–2029, leaving cumulative U.S. solar capacity at about 449.6 GW by 2030. Annual deployments are forecast to climb again from 2030, rising to 51 GW in 2034 and 52 GW in 2035, producing the 737.8 GW total by the end of 2035. The consultancy also expects total U.S. renewables capacity to reach roughly 1.06 TW by 2035, up from 414.5 GW at year-end 2024.
According to the analysis, state procurement targets, distributed generation policies, net billing and net metering frameworks, and large-scale utility contracting in markets such as Texas, California and the Midwest will be central to that build-out. GlobalData notes, however, that trade and tariff measures introduced in 2025 have added cost pressure and uncertainty for projects reliant on imported components, while higher input costs have slowed project schedules, raised capital requirements and prompted delays or cancellations in some pipelines.
Mohammed Ziauddin, power analyst at GlobalData, summarised the firm’s view on the sector’s trajectory: “Solar and wind continue to expand at scale, supported by state policies and private sector demand, while gas and nuclear investments address capacity adequacy and longer-term system needs,” he said. “Together, these trends are reshaping the U.S. electricity system into a more diversified and resilient market over the long term.” Ziauddin also told pv magazine Global that renewable investment between 2025 and 2030 is expected to reach around $442.2 billion, reflecting the scale of planned solar and wind development.
Independent assessments and market data provide context and caveats to that picture. Columbia University’s SIPA report, drawing on Solar Energy Industries Association statistics, confirms an exceptionally strong 2024 for U.S. solar , citing 49.99 GWdc installed in 2024 , and forecasts more than 43 GWdc of new installations each year from 2025 to 2035. SIPA warns, however, of a potential utility-scale slowdown in 2026 driven by labour constraints and interconnection bottlenecks in the federal grid system, highlighting the practical delivery risks behind headline capacity targets. The report also points to a rapidly maturing domestic supply chain: as of April 2025 SEIA data showed roughly 25 GWdc of polysilicon, 2 GWdc of cells and 52.3 GWdc of module manufacturing capacity in operation, with further cell and module plants under construction.
Globally, solar’s ascent is similarly large-scale. GlobalData’s wider renewables modelling projected worldwide solar capacity to reach multiple terawatts by 2035, a view echoed by market intelligence firms. DataM Intelligence and others report sustained commercial expansion in the PV value chain, with the Solar PV panels market and solar cells and modules markets both forecast to grow strongly through the 2020s and into the 2030s. Industry data cited by PR Newswire and market research groups shows solar and other renewables accounted for the majority of new generation capacity additions in recent years, underscoring the sector’s rapid transformation from niche technology to mainstream infrastructure.
Regional concentration and integration issues are already visible in the U.S. California and Texas remain the primary engines of growth. S&P Global’s market forecasts show California accounting for a disproportionate share of forthcoming renewable additions, with the state expected to add scores of gigawatts of renewables by 2035 and face operational challenges such as increased curtailment, falling capacity value and margin compression as penetration rises. California’s aggressive decarbonisation targets , including 60% renewable procurement by 2030 and 100% carbon-free electricity by 2045 , help explain the state’s outsized pipeline and the system integration issues GlobalData and others flag.
The economics and timing of the projected build depend on several moving parts. Tariff and trade policies implemented in 2025 have injected cost uncertainty for projects depending on imports, while rising input prices and capital costs have lengthened timelines for some developments. At the same time, the ramp-up of domestic manufacturing, including the first U.S. ingot and wafer facilities coming online in 2025, will gradually reduce reliance on imports and could mitigate policy-induced supply risks if deployment of cell and module capacity keeps pace with demand.
For industrial and utility-scale decarbonisation planners, the key takeaways are dual. First, the scale of planned expansion , hundreds of gigawatts over the next decade , creates significant opportunities to replace fossil-fired generation and to deploy long-duration storage, grid reinforcements and demand-side technologies. Second, delivery risks are material: supply-chain dynamics, tariffs, input-cost inflation, labour constraints and interconnection delays can alter the timing and location of builds, affecting procurement, contracting and system planning.
In short, GlobalData’s baseline pathway envisions a U.S. power sector substantially reshaped by solar between now and 2035, but achieving that outcome will require coordinated policy, investment in domestic manufacturing and proactive grid planning to absorb a rapidly expanding fleet of variable generation.
- https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2026/01/01/u-s-market-on-course-to-hit-737-8-gw-of-solar-by-2035/ – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/12/31/u-s-on-course-to-reach-737-8-gw-of-solar-by-2035/ – An article from pv magazine International reports that, according to London-based consultancy firm GlobalData, the U.S. is projected to deploy 737.8 GW of solar by the end of 2035. The analysis indicates that the U.S. will add 47.9 GW of solar in 2025, slightly below the record 49 GW deployed in 2024. The annual deployment rate is expected to slow, with projections of 42.2 GW in 2026, 44.8 GW in 2027, 41.7 GW in 2028, and 41.6 GW in 2029. By the end of the decade, the cumulative solar capacity is on course to stand at 449.6 GW. Annual deployments are forecast to begin increasing in the early 2030s, with projections of 42.7 GW in 2030, 44.8 GW in 2031, 47.9 GW in 2032, and 49.8 GW in 2033. The U.S. is then expected to surpass the 50 GW threshold in 2034 and 2035, with annual deployments of 51 GW and 52 GW, leading to 737.8 GW by the end of 2035. The article also notes that total renewables capacity in the U.S. is set to reach 1.06 TW by 2035, more than doubling from the 414.5 GW recorded at the end of 2024. The analysis attributes the solar deployment over the next ten years to state procurement targets, distributed generation policies, net billing and net metering frameworks, and large-scale utility contracting across key markets such as Texas, California, and the Midwest. However, it also mentions that trade and tariff measures introduced in 2025 have added cost pressure and uncertainty for renewables reliant on imported components, while higher input costs have slowed project timelines, increased capital requirements, and contributed to delays and cancellations. Despite these challenges, the article concludes that renewable energy remains the primary driver of capacity growth in the U.S. power sector through to 2035, with renewable investment expected to reach around $442.2 billion between 2025 and 2030, reflecting the scale of ongoing solar and wind development across key regional markets.
- https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/06/03/global-solar-capacity-to-surpass-7-5-tw-in-2035-says-globaldata/ – An article from pv magazine International reports that, according to figures from London-based data analytics and consulting company GlobalData, the world is forecast to have installed 7.6 TW of solar by the end of 2035. The figure comes from the company’s latest report, ‘Renewable Energy: Strategic Intelligence,’ which projects global installed capacity of all renewables will surge from 3.24 TW in 2024 to 11.2 TW by 2035, with solar accounting for the largest share of installed power. Additional figures from GlobalData, shared with pv magazine, projected the world’s cumulative solar capacity will reach 2,378 GW by year-end and rise to 2,849 GW by the end of 2026.
- https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/solar-pv-panels-market-to-hit-330-5-bn-by-2032–driven-by-clean-energy-demand-and-policy-push–according-to-datam-intelligence-report-302538921.html – A press release from PR Newswire reports that, according to DataM Intelligence analysis, the Solar PV Panels Market Size was valued at US$180.29 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach US$330.50 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 7.87% (2025–2032). Over the past decade, solar PV capacity has grown at an unprecedented pace, rising from around 1,048 GW in 2021 to more than 2.2 TW by the end of 2024, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Looking ahead, annual renewable capacity additions are expected to approach 935 GW by 2030, with solar PV representing the dominant share. This scale-up underscores the sector’s transformation from a niche technology into a central pillar of the global energy system. The accelerating demand for clean and renewable energy is the primary catalyst for market growth. Across industries and geographies, businesses, governments, and consumers are aligning strategies to reduce emissions and mitigate fossil fuel dependency.
- https://www.globalgrowthinsights.com/market-reports/solar-cells-and-modules-market-121424 – A market report from Global Growth Insights states that the Global Solar Cells and Modules Market size was USD 48.22 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 52.66 billion in 2026, USD 57.5 billion in 2027, and ultimately USD 116.27 billion by 2035, reflecting a steady 9.2% rise during the forecast period. With rising adoption rates, more than 40% demand growth is coming from utility-scale projects, while over 30% of installations involve high-efficiency module technologies. Increasing energy-transition initiatives and strong policy support continue to push market penetration across multiple sectors. The US Solar Cells and Modules Market is expanding rapidly, supported by more than 35% growth in residential installations and over 28% expansion in commercial deployment. Utility-scale projects contribute nearly 45% of national demand, while advanced mono-Si and bifacial technologies make up more than 50% of new installations. Increased investment in clean-energy programs and rising consumer interest in sustainable solutions drive strong nationwide adoption.
- https://www.sipa.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/2025-06/Columbia%20SIPA%20Spring%202025%20Final%20Report%20for%20Citi%20Global%20Wealth%20Management.pdf – A report from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) discusses the growth of the U.S. solar industry in both demand and supply. On the demand side, according to statistics by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), 49.99 gigawatts direct current (GWdc) of solar PV capacity was installed in 2024, accounting for 66% of all electricity generation capacity newly installed in the year. The SEIA predicts new installations of solar PV capacity to be more than 43 GWdc each year from 2025 to 2035, but a slowdown in installation growth is predicted for the utility-scale segment in 2026, owing to restraints from labor availability and the federal interconnection system. On the supply side, as of April 2025, according to SEIA, total US manufacturing capacity under operation includes 25 GWdc of polysilicon, 2 GWdc of cells, and 52.3 GWdc of modules. Compared to the module demand of 49.99 GWdc in 2024 and expected 49.17 GWdc in 2025, the U.S. module manufacturing capacity can already cover all domestic demand. In 2025, the first ingot and wafer facilities in the U.S. will become operational, and more capacity of cells and modules are under construction, leading the U.S. solar industry to develop toward a full supply chain.
- https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/market-insights/daily-update-nov-24-2025 – An article from S&P Global discusses California’s dominance in U.S. solar output, accounting for 22.1% of national solar generation in 2024. While solar is projected to grow in every U.S. state through 2035, California’s build-out remains among the most aggressive. According to the S&P Global Energy Market Indicative Forecast for the third quarter of 2025, about 219.8 GW of renewables are expected to be built in California by 2035, with solar comprising 75.5%. This indicates the state’s continued leadership in clean energy, but the rapid build-out is leading to challenges such as increasingly curtailed volumes, declining capacity value, and compressed margins. California is now second to Texas in installed solar, with 23.8 GW operating as of October 2025 and an additional 20.6 GW of grid-scale projects in the pipeline — capacity that would nearly double the current fleet. The Golden State remains a central driver of photovoltaic development as it transitions toward 100% carbon-free generation. Statewide clean energy targets require utilities to source 60% renewable energy by 2030 and achieve 100% carbon-free electricity by 2045. Meeting these targets implies substantial building works: The Market Indicative Forecast projects 165.8 GW of solar in California by 2035, lifting solar’s share of statewide generation to 60.7% in 2035 from 22.6% in 2024.
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The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
10
Notes:
The narrative is recent, published on January 1, 2026, with no evidence of prior publication. The data originates from a press release by GlobalData, which typically warrants a high freshness score.
Quotes check
Score:
10
Notes:
The direct quote from Mohammed Ziauddin, power analyst at GlobalData, appears to be original, with no earlier matches found online.
Source reliability
Score:
10
Notes:
The narrative originates from pv magazine USA, a reputable publication in the renewable energy sector, enhancing the credibility of the information.
Plausability check
Score:
10
Notes:
The projections align with other industry analyses, such as those from Wood Mackenzie, which forecasts the U.S. solar industry to add 502 GWdc of capacity over the next decade. ([woodmac.com](https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/Australia-battery-storage-report/us-solar-industry-to-add-502-gwdc-of-capacity-in-next-10-years/?utm_source=openai)) The narrative provides specific figures and forecasts, including annual deployment rates and cumulative capacity, which are consistent with current industry expectations.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): PASS
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): HIGH
Summary:
The narrative is recent, with original quotes and data from a reputable source, and its projections are consistent with other industry analyses, indicating a high level of credibility.
