A new report by Abatable highlights how the voluntary carbon market is transitioning from opportunistic trades to risk-managed procurement, with mandatory demand and supply tightness shaping prices and project standards through 2026 and beyond.
The voluntary carbon market is shifting from opportunistic trades to structured, risk-managed procurement as new compliance requirements, long-term offtake agreements and a tightening supply of high-integrity credits reshape corporate buying and pricing through 2026 and beyond, according to a new report by Abatable.
Abatable’s study, The Carbon Market Dimensions that Matter in 2026, argues that buyers are increasingly building portfolios to manage delivery, reputational and performance risk rather than chasing spot bargains. According to the report, emerging compliance programmes are set to be a major driver of demand: Abatable projects CORSIA will add roughly 78 million tonnes of new demand in 2026, while national schemes such as Japan’s forthcoming GX‑ETS are expected to stimulate local markets and increase regulation-driven purchasing.
Other analyses point to even larger aviation demand and a widening range of outcomes. The International Civil Aviation Organization has updated modelling that envisages cumulative CORSIA requirements of up to 150 million tonnes by 2026 and as much as 1.5 billion tonnes across 2024–2035. MSCI’s research offers a different framing, forecasting Phase I demand of about 106–137 million tonnes for 2024–2026 and projecting Phase II needs of between 502 million and 1.3 billion tonnes to 2035, while estimating potential CORSIA-eligible credit prices rising into the USD 18–91 per tonne band depending on scenario and phase. Abatable’s own analysis cautions that, while supply may meet CORSIA in its voluntary early phase, mandatory expansion from 2027 could create a supply shortfall that persists toward 2030, a concern echoed in reporting by S&P Global. Industry forecasters such as IBA and Fastmarkets likewise warn of tightening eligible supply and upward pressure on offset prices through the late 2020s.
On the supply side, momentum for higher-integrity projects remains, even as headline funding announcements moderated in 2025. Abatable records disclosed financing of $15.8 billion last year, with around $9 billion channelled to nature-based initiatives as developers and investors pivot toward methodologies aligned with stricter integrity criteria. That shift has coincided with a marked increase in long-term contracting: disclosed forward carbon credit agreements rose 58% in 2025 to $5.8 billion, driven principally by demand for engineered removals and other durable outcomes. Abatable projects forward prices for both nature‑based and engineered removal credits to increase through 2030, with afforestation, reforestation and revegetation (ARR) credits predicted to appreciate more strongly relative to spot markets.
Several market participants and data providers attribute rising forward pricing to limited availability of high-integrity supply and to the higher financing costs developers face when meeting more exacting standards. The growing premium for verifiable co‑benefits, permanence and third‑party validation is changing procurement criteria: corporate buyers report elevating integrity frameworks such as the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market’s Core Carbon Principles and prioritising projects that deliver social and environmental co‑benefits alongside emissions outcomes.
These structural dynamics have practical implications for industrial decarbonisation strategies. As buyers shift to contracted, long‑dated supply, project developers that can demonstrate durability and transparent monitoring stand to capture higher offtake prices. At the same time, airlines and other sectors exposed to compliance obligations will need to reconcile differing demand forecasts and price scenarios in their capital and operational planning. MSCI and IBA modelling suggests that rising compliance costs could materialise into meaningful budgetary impacts for carriers under certain price trajectories.
Market actors emphasise the centrality of quality in this next phase. «Accuracy is the most important thing for carbon markets,» Nick Marshall, Project Developer Forum Chair, said in public comments referenced in market coverage. That focus on accuracy and credibility underpins the wider transition from volume-driven trading to a market where certification, delivery certainty and long-term counterparty commitments define value.
Taken together, the evidence indicates a market increasingly shaped by mandatory demand, deeper forward markets and a growing willingness among corporates to pay premiums for verified, durable removals and high‑integrity nature-based outcomes. For industrial decarbonisation practitioners, the message is clear: securing credible, long‑dated supply and embedding robust verification in project design will be central to meeting both regulatory obligations and corporate net‑zero claims as the market structure evolves.
- https://carbonherald.com/new-abatable-report-quality-not-volume-to-define-carbon-markets-in-2026/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=new-abatable-report-quality-not-volume-to-define-carbon-markets-in-2026 – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/051424-demand-for-corsia-carbon-credits-unlikely-to-match-supply-until-2030-abatable – A report by Abatable indicates that demand for CORSIA carbon credits may not match supply until 2030. The first phase of CORSIA, starting in 2024, is voluntary, covering about 80% of international aviation emissions. The second phase, beginning in 2027, will be mandatory for most international flights. Abatable’s analysis suggests that while supply will meet demand in the first phase, a significant gap may emerge in the second phase due to increased mandatory participation. This could lead to a supply-demand imbalance by 2030, highlighting the need for proactive measures to ensure compliance and market stability.
- https://carbon-pulse.com/416585/ – The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has updated its forecast for CORSIA offsetting requirements, estimating a cumulative demand of up to 150 million tonnes by 2026 and up to 1.5 billion tonnes over the 2024-2035 period. This projection underscores the growing demand for carbon credits in the aviation sector, emphasizing the importance of developing a robust and scalable carbon credit market to meet these obligations and support global climate goals.
- https://www.iata.org/en/programs/sustainability//corsia – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) provides an overview of the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). The scheme aims to stabilize net CO₂ emissions from international aviation at around 600 million tonnes. IATA highlights that, without CORSIA, the CO₂ footprint of international aviation would increase from slightly over 600 million tonnes in 2019 to almost 900 million tonnes by 2035, emphasizing the critical role of CORSIA in mitigating aviation-related emissions.
- https://www.msci.com/research-and-insights/paper/corsia-costs-and-implications-for-the-airline-industry – MSCI’s research paper analyses the potential demand, supply, and prices for credits under CORSIA, assessing the financial implications for the airline industry. The study projects cumulative demand for CORSIA-eligible carbon credits from airlines to range from 106-137 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent during Phase I (2024 to 2026), rising to 502-1,299 million tonnes during Phase II (2027 to 2035). It also estimates that CORSIA-eligible credits could see prices in the USD 18-51 range per tonne during Phase I and USD 27-91 during the latter stages of Phase II, with potential impacts on airline operating profits and ticket prices.
- https://www.zawya.com/en/business/aviation/airlines-face-rising-corsia-costs-as-2027-offset-demand-hits-79mt-iba-mfn7uklj/ – IBA reports that airlines are forecast to offset 79.25 million tonnes of carbon in 2027 under Phase 2 of CORSIA, amid tightening credit supply and rising compliance costs. With limited eligible supply and increasing demand, offset prices could surge to $25–$60 per tonne by the late 2020s. IBA estimates that carriers such as Emirates could face CORSIA-related compliance costs of up to $346 million in 2027, equivalent to 3.5% of its projected fuel budget.
- https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/demand-tailwinds-meet-supply-headwinds-forecasting-corsias-impact-on-carbon-credit-markets/ – Fastmarkets analyses the demand and supply dynamics of CORSIA-eligible credits, highlighting potential challenges in meeting offsetting obligations. As of September 2025, 129 countries had confirmed their voluntary participation in CORSIA Phase 1, covering 64% of global international aviation activity. Projections suggest that cumulative demand during the 2024–2026 period will range from 150 to 175 million tonnes of CO₂, with the midpoint at 162 million credits. The report emphasizes the need for strategic planning and market engagement to address potential supply constraints and ensure compliance.
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The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
8
Notes:
The article references Abatable’s report titled ‘The Carbon Market Dimensions that Matter in 2026’, published in February 2026. ([linkedin.com](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/eleanor-bett_this-was-so-much-fun-to-produce-our-first-activity-7427761643209646080-h8Wl?utm_source=openai)) The content appears original, with no evidence of prior publication. However, the article’s URL includes a tracking parameter, suggesting it may have been republished across various platforms, potentially indicating low-quality sites or clickbait networks.
Quotes check
Score:
7
Notes:
The article includes direct quotes attributed to Nick Marshall, Project Developer Forum Chair. ([linkedin.com](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/eleanor-bett_this-was-so-much-fun-to-produce-our-first-activity-7427761643209646080-h8Wl?utm_source=openai)) However, these quotes cannot be independently verified through other reputable sources, raising concerns about their authenticity. ([linkedin.com](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/eleanor-bett_this-was-so-much-fun-to-produce-our-first-activity-7427761643209646080-h8Wl?utm_source=openai))
Source reliability
Score:
6
Notes:
The article originates from Carbon Herald, a niche publication focusing on carbon markets. While it provides detailed information, its limited reach and potential bias due to its focus on carbon markets may affect the reliability of the information presented.
Plausibility check
Score:
7
Notes:
The article discusses trends in the voluntary carbon market, including the shift towards quality over volume, the impact of compliance programmes like CORSIA, and the integration of compliance and voluntary markets. These claims align with industry trends and are plausible. However, the lack of independent verification for some claims, such as the projected demand from CORSIA, raises concerns. ([linkedin.com](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/eleanor-bett_this-was-so-much-fun-to-produce-our-first-activity-7427761643209646080-h8Wl?utm_source=openai))
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): FAIL
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): MEDIUM
Summary:
The article presents information from Abatable’s report on carbon markets in 2026. However, the reliance on a single source, the inability to independently verify quotes, and the potential for republishing across low-quality sites raise significant concerns about the content’s reliability and originality.
